“Living in an unpredictable world requires us to prepare for the inevitable such as what happened in Marawi City.“
— Lt Gen Glorioso Miranda
Commanding General, PA
No matter if the ISIS meets defeat in Iraq and Syria, the future operational environment of the Philippine Army will include external and internal threats of terrorist groups. Foreign Terrorist Groups (FTGs) are still actively training old and new members, and linking up with local cohorts in the country. They will continue to provide logistics and financial support as well as reinforcements for local terrorist groups who advocate their cause.
In addition, the Muslim insurgency in Mindanao remains one of the core issues affecting the land. The disputes are a result of old conflicts over the assertion of land and religion. Under the administration of President Duterte, secessionist groups in Mindanao such as the MILF and MNLF will watch out closely for any current developments in the pending passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL). Both MILF and MNLF are expecting the promulgation and implementation of the BBL.
FTGs will still focus on Southeast Asia, particularly on the Philippines, as their prime staging area, since they have networked with LTGs such as: the ASG, ISIS-Maute Terrorist Group, and BIFF, who continuously commit atrocities.
Our current forces on the ground must also address sympathizers of violent extremism who might capitalize on the neutralization of the ISIS-Maute Terrorist Group’s key leaders, and use it as propaganda to bolster the forces of other terrorist groups in the region.
Moreover, the remnants of ISIS-Maute Terrorist Group will regroup, seek refuge, and link-up with other LTGs in order to rebuild their organization. Their group will focus on the enhancement of their capabilities and the gaining of mass support. We cannot discount these consequences, due to the neutralization of their key leaders, which was crucial and symbolic for combating violent extremism.
End of the Siege of Marawi
The Marawi crisis was concluded by the deaths of Isnilon Hapilon, Omarkhayam, and Abdullah Maute. Though a handful of enemy fighters may have escaped during the early days of the crisis, the deaths of their leaders left a vacuum in their organization.
There is no doubt that extremists and other terrorist groups will exploit the destruction of Marawi City. They will use the grievances of the IDPs to recruit others to their cause. Violent extremists may portray Isnilon Hapilon and his cohorts as martyrs and heroes, and glorify their deeds to inspire future terrorist fighters.
Thus, the post-Marawi Crisis will also be a battle of narratives. This makes IO more important and definitely relevant; it emphasizes and stresses the need to sustain our gains in the information environment that were established during the crisis, to give tribute to the sacrifices of all those who served in the five-month-long campaign to liberate Marawi City, and to show our gratitude to the people who showered us with their support during the hard-fought battle. We emerged triumphant in the battle, but we must sustain our efforts to counter the enemy’s propaganda, and maintain our strategic and moral victory. These efforts are all geared towards defeating violent extremism, so that peace can prosper and our people can continue to live without fear.
There is no certain nor a universal strategy for defeating terrorism. It evolves, adapts, and shifts along with the technological advancements of our time. Therefore, we need to continuously upgrade and improve our own capabilities to be a step ahead of them. Eternal vigilance is the price for our country’s liberty.
Future trends IN terrorism:
• Aggressive use of modern technology
• Information management
• Communication and intelligence enhancement
• Weaponry advancement
• Increase in purchasing power
• Personnel training and skill enhancement
• Resourcing and sufficient cash funding
• Continuous planning and strategizing on countering government counter-measures
• Sensationalism and propaganda boosters
• Exploring diversified tactics to create power vacuums in the religious and government sectors
Types of Terrorist Activities
• Bombing
• Arson
• Hijacking and skyjacking
• Nuclear attacks
• Cyber attacks
• Radiological attacks
• Biological attacks
• Chemical attacks
• Robbery and extortion
• Kidnapping and hostage taking
• Armed attacks and militarization
• Ambush and assassination
The threat of terrorism is a threat to every person’s life. Terrorism thrives for as long as a culture of silence pervades, and communities continue to live in fear. We will not allow the enemy to establish a foothold in our country, nor allow terror to reign in our land. But we need each and everyone’s support, cooperation, and prayers, in order to maintain and achieve a long and lasting peace.
